Momentum Trader Report: 03/15/09

The market put in a powerful bear market rally last week, which was confirmed on Thursday. Many people are excited that this could signify the bottom. But so far, this has the signs of a typical bear market rally. Notice that volume has been decreasing throughout the week as the market moved higher.

There could still be some room on the upside though. It’s important to be cautious here. If this is truly the bottom, there will be plenty of time to get in and make lots of money.

So the site was down for a while. A few weeks ago, this site celebrated 1 year of being online at this address. There were some problems in renewing the site, and I decided that it might be a good time to let the site die. It was taking up a lot of my time, and the market has been one of the toughest to trade in history. So I said “eff it”, I’m taking the site down.

Then came last weeks rally, which I wasn’t really prepared for. Sure, I made some good trades, like STAR prior to the rally, then SNDA and AMZN among others. But I also made some impulse trades, most of which didn’t work out well. This was due to not being disciplined and chasing the market. Although I was looking at charts every night, I wasn’t doing a very good job. Posting my thoughts here seems to really help me trade better, and truthfully, I missed it. So the site is back.

IBD Picks for Monday

So we are now in an IBD confirmed rally, which means there are some stocks that have been blackboxed in Mondays edition of Inventors Business Daily as being near their buy points. They are: NFLX, HMSY, GNCR, SNDA

Longer Term Trading Idea:

A longer-term trade idea I am looking at right now is in bonds. I am looking to play bonds via 2 ETF’s, TLT and its inverse, TBT. These are both consolidating right now, and have entered the squeeze, described here. This often precedes a substantial momentum move.

Note: In the past couple of weeks, I traded both of these, both for a loss! I am now waiting for a break out of consolidation as confirmation.

Trade Ideas for 03/16/09:

A pullback is very likely, so I am still only looking at day trading these, and only if we continue moving higher on Monday. This week is also OpEx, and will likely be very volatile, so I’m going to use caution with these.

Good luck and good trading!