Last night, I posted the chart of the Russell, showing how it had broken it’s 50-Day MA. This was likely a sign that the other indexes would soon follow. Today, The S&P 500 and NASDAQ followed.


Only the Dow is still above its 50-Day MA, but expect it to follow the other indexes lower.
This of course means that the rally which start in March is over. Expect lower prices from here for some time. Sure, snap back rallies may happen, but those will likely be selling opportunities.
I made a mental note to myself last year. Whenever I saw the S&P 500 close below it’s 50-Day MA, just short it. So that’s what I did with a long position in SH. I may take some heat in this if the market bounces, but it’s a small position; stop at 53.75.

I traded breakouts on the long side all through the 2008 meltdown. Crazy, I know. It wasn’t all bad, there were some good trades in there, but I don’t plan to do it again. Yes, the market is oversold and many are expecting a bounce. It could happen. I remember writing those things last year while the market continued to get pounded. Oversold can become more oversold. Cash is best for now. The only thing working for me at the moment are day trades in the 3X leveraged ETF’s. I plan to write a trading lesson on this showing the setup I use with entries and exits.
There are almost no stocks that look good here. Any stocks that do look strong will likely be taken down. Just take a look at JADE today. Here are a couple of charts that are interesting. These are at pivot points that could provide a low risk trade, depending on which way they break.



Too many charts are broken now, and will take weeks, maybe months to rebuild.
Good luck and good trading!
2 Responses
Danny
October 29th, 2009 at 7:07 am
1Hello,
I am still reading every post, and I thank you for your analysis. I agree with you in that the market trend appears to be shifting, and I think that at this moment, shorting breakdowns appears to be in line with the path of least resistance.
I think that buying chart breakouts in a bull market makes sense (as you have shown), but I think it is equally important to be willing to short breakdowns in a bear market. In other words, even the best looking longs will likely fail if the general market trend is down.
So, I agree, again, with your thoughts. Thanks again.
Momentum-Trader
October 29th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
2“even the best looking longs will likely fail if the general market trend is down.”
Boy, ain’t that the truth. I have seen many bullish charts just suddenly breakdown in a bear market. I wonder how long it will be before AMZN get’s brought down?
I have a problem with shorting stocks. When they fall, they move very fast, and I usually miss the move. I’m always looking for strong charts, but the momentum has been on the short side. You’re right, I should be looking to short the breakdowns.
RSS feed for comments on this post · TrackBack URI
Leave a reply
Archives
Links
Bookmark & Share
By: Twitter Buttons